How often do prospects become stars?

This off-season 3 of the top 10 pitchers in baseball have been traded strictly for prospects that have not yet proven themselves at, or even reached, the major league level. It seems like more often than not, these trades favor the teams receiving the sure thing.
Let’s analyze an entire year’s worth of prospects, by going 15 year’s into the pat-1993- and seeing how Baseball America’s Top 100 Prospects panned out.

Our Rating System
1.0- Never Reached Majors
1.5- Cup of Coffee
2.0- Never Caught on as a Starter, Bounced Around
2.5- Had Potential/ Career Decimated by Injury
3.0- Journeyman
3.5- Solid Starter
4.0- All-Star Caliber
4.5- Potential Hall of Famer
5.0- Likely Hall of Famer


The Top 100 from 1993

100. Rene Arocha, RHP, Cardinals- 1.5
A Cuban refugee, he finished with a record of 18-17.

99. Russ Springer, RHP, Angels- 3.0
Springer has had a remarkable career arc:

1993 ERA- 7.20
1994- 5.52
1995- 5.29
1996- 4.66
1997- 4.23
1998- 4.10
1999- 3.42
During that span he played for 6 different teams. Then in 2000 and 2001 he had terrible seasons, and missed the 2002 season with an injury. At the age of 34, Springer came back in 2003 with St. Louis and was awful. But he latched on with Houston and had 3 solid seasons. Last year, at age 38, he had a 2.18 ERA and a WHIP under 1.00 for the Cardinals. Amazing.

98. J.T. Snow, 1B, Angels- 4.0
6 Gold Gloves. His best days were over at age 32.

97. Bret Boone, 2B, Mariners- 4.0
Boone’s Home Run totals are a little suspicious.
4, 12, 12, 15, 12, 7, 24, 20, 19, 37, 24, 35, 24.
Then in 2005 he basically forgot how to hit and had to retire.

96. Aaron Holbert, SS, Cardinals- 1.5
I’d never heard of Holbert before, but this is a remarkable story.
He was the Cards’ first Draft Pick in 1990 and finally made it to the bigs in 1996. He played one game when Ozzie Smith got hurt and went 0-3 and got sent back down. He played 9 more seasons at AAA, in fact, his total numbers in the minors were .271 with 77 homers in over 5,500 at bats. Finally, playing for the Reds AAA team in 2005, his 16th professional season, he got called up when Ryan Freel got hurt and got his first MLB hit at 32.

95. Bobby Abreu, OF, Astros- 4.0
3 Fun Facts about Abreu:
1. Abreu has been good enough to receive votes for MVP (not first place votes) 6 times, but has never cracked the top 10 in balloting.
2. Abreu has a chance in 2009 to top $100 million dollars in career earnings. That’s an awful lot of money for someone who was never considered one of the top 10 players in his own league.
3. Classic (Devil) Rays: They pick Abreu in their Expansion Draft and trade him that day for Kevin Stocker.

94. Greg Gohr, RHP, Tigers- 1.5
In 1993, when this list came out, I was 10 years old. Now, for a ten year-old I was a huge baseball fan, but I certainly didn’t know anything about prospects yet. Anyway, I was curious how many players on this list I’d never heard of, presumably because they never made it or had irrelevant careers, like Mr. Gohr above. I assumed it would be fewer than 10 players. The answer was 36.

93. Preston Wilson, OF, Mets- 4.0
According to Baseball Reference, Wilson’s closest comparison at Age 31 was Frank Thomas. I was pretty shocked by that, but I figured hey, I guess Preston used to pretty good. His numbers were pretty solid, at least 23 dingers for 6 straight seasons, but his average was frequently in the .240’s. So I clicked on Thomas’ name to see how the comparison played out and I realized that it was the other Frank Thomas, the one from the ’62 Mets. Oh.

92. Butch Huskey, 3B, Mets- 2.5
In 1997, Huskey hit .287- 24-81.
In 1999, Huskey hit .282-22-77
In 2000, he struggled for the Twins, but raked in Colorado after being traded in July.
In 2001, he failed to make the Indians out of Spring Training at retired at the age of 28.
91. Dan Wilson, C, Reds- 3.5
Wilson had a pretty decent career, mostly as a platoon catcher with Seattle. He even made an All-Star game in ’95 when he hit .285-18-83, by far his best season.
But look how exposed he was in the postseason:
8 hits in 88 at-bats, for a .091 average, with 1 2B, 4 BB and 32 SO.

90. Sterling Hitchcock, LHP, Yankees- 3.5
Unremarkable regular season career with a record of 74-76 and a 4.80 ERA, but he was the 1998 NLCS MVP, and he pitched a great game in the ’98 Worlds Series against the Yankees.

89. Alex Ochoa, OF, Orioles- 2.0
A “5 Tool Prospect” who was truly mediocre at 5 different things. Ochoa was traded a remarkable 7 times in his short career.

88. Larry Thomas, LHP, White Sox- 1.5
Thomas actually pitched well in his 79 appearances over 3 seasons, but he struggled a little in AAA in 1998 and was never heard from again.

87. Brian Hunter, OF, Astros- 3.0
All speed (74 steals in 1997), no bat.

86. Ron Watson, RHP, Angels- 1.0
First player on the list to never make the majors.

85. Roger Cedeno, OF, Dodgers- 3.0
Cedeno, another all speed guy, hit 40 homers, and made nearly $25 million in his career. I wonder if there’s a hitter out there, who made more than $1 million per homer.

84. Aaron Sele, RHP, Red Sox- 3.5
Sele is a truly Steroid Era pitcher; 36 games over .500 with a 4.61 ERA

83. Steve Hosey, OF, Giants- 1.5
1 Career Home Run.

82. Raul Mondesi, OF, Dodgers- 3.5
Mondesi is very possibly the best player to never drive in 100 runs. In fact, 3 Canadian Dollars to the person who finds a better player without 100 RBI.

81. Paul Shuey, RHP, Indians- 3.0
Shuey had a nice career from 1994-2003, missed 3 seasons due to injury and then retirement, but made it back to the majors in 2007. There was no happy ending however as he was one of the Orioles’ primary culprits in the 30-3 game and was cut days later sporting a 9.82 ERA.

80. Steve Ruffcorn, RHP, White Sox- 1.5
79. Steve Gibralter, OF, Reds- 1.5
78. Rich Becker, OF, Mets- 2.0
77. Mark Thompson, RHP, Rockies- 2.0
76. Curtis Shaw, LHP, Athletics- 1.0
75. Jose Pett, RHP, Blue Jays- 1.0
74. Al Shirley, OF, Mets- 1.0
73. Dan Smith, LHP, Rangers -1.5
72. Greg Blosser, OF, Red Sox- 1.5
71. Chad Mottola. OF, Reds- 1.5
From 80-71, a staggering array of players who never panned out. Shirley is the first player who never made AAA.

70. Derek Lowe, RHP, Mariners- 4.0
A really late bloomer, Lowe had never won more than 6 games until 2002, when he racked up 21 wins.

69. Carl Everett, OF, Marlins- 3.5
Everett is thought of to be a pretty solid player, but his most similar career comparison is Bobby Higginson.

68. Jose Martinez, RHP, Marlins- 1.5
One Career Start

67. Mike Lieberthal, C, Phillies- 3.5
Although probably viewed as an inferior player, Lieberthal has almost identical career stats to Jason Varitek.
Player AB HR RBI BA OBP Gold Gloves
Lieberthal 4,218 150 610 .274 .337 1
Varitek 3,978 148 611 .267 .350 1
66. James Baldwin, RHP, White Sox- 3.0
79-74 with a 5.01 ERA; Pitched for 7 teams in his final 5 seasons.

65. Joe Rosselli, LHP, Giants

1992 NFL Draft: The Worst of All-Time ?

I remember exactly where I watched the 1992 NFL Draft- I was in the Bahamas for Passover and ESPN was on a big screen in my hotel lobby. I remember being puzzled by 2 things:

1. Why the Colts had the first 2 picks in the Draft.

2. Why anyone would pass over the amazing Desmond Howard.

There was almost certainly never a draft as terrible from top-t0-bottom as 1992.


Let's take a look at all of the drafts from the 1990's to understand just how atrocious the '92 Draft truly was.


1990

Hall of Famers- 3. Emmitt Smith, Shannon Sharpe (probably), and the still- active Junior Seau.

This draft may have started ignominiously with Jeff George and Blair Thomas going 1-2, but it picked up quickly. DT Cortez Kennedy went 3rd to Seattle and he went on make 7 Pro Bowls, as did Richmond Webb who went 9 to the Dolphins. Frankly, this is not a particularly good first round, but the later rounds found such gems as LeRoy Butler and Bryce Paup.

1991
You knew this would be a bizarre draft, when certain first pick Rocket Ismail, spurned the Cowboys to sign with the CFL's Toronto Argonauts (seriously kids, that actually happened) on the night before the Draft. It may also be the only Draft ever where the 2nd round turned out to be better than the 1st.

The best players from Round 1 were DT's; Russell Maryland, Ted Washington, and Eric Swann along with WR Herman Moore. It featured spectacular busts like QB's Todd Marinovich and Mark McGwire's bother Dan.

Round 2 featured Ricky Watters who dominated a Super Bowl and made 5 straight Pro Bowls, solid defensive players like Roman Phifer, Phil Hansen, and Darryll Lewis. Oh, and Brett Favre.

The later rounds featured tons of talent as well, including Aeneas Williams, Mo Lewis, Keith Traylor, Bryan Cox, Ben Coates and Keenan McCardell.

We will skip 1992 and go back to it, to get a feel for how atrocious it was.

1993

Hall of Famers: Michael Strahan is a lock. Guard Will Shields has made 12 Pro Bowls and should be a lock. Jerome Bettis will probably make it. Tackle Willie Roaf, who made 11 Pro Bowls has a good shot. John Lynch is considered the best safety of his era and should make it as well.

'93 Was absolutely loaded with talent. In addition to the likely 5 Hall of Famers, there were quality linemen like Lincoln Kennedy, Brad Hopkins, Dana Stubblefield, solid RB's like Garrison Hearst and Robert Smith, and late round QB finds Trent Green and Mark Brunell.

1994

Hall of Famers: Marshall Faulk and Larry Allen.

There might only be 2 players going to Canton but there are tons of A- players. Rodney Harrison, Willie McGinest, Sam Adams, Bryant Young on defense. Offensively, there were Isaac Bruce, Dorsey Levens, Jamal Anderson, plus Pro Bowl stalwarts at Center, Tom Nalen and Kevin Mawae.

1995

Hall of Famers: Curtis Martin will be in. Derrick Brooks is pretty close to a lock. Warren Sapp has a better than 50-50 shot as well.

Injuries probably ruined the HOF chances for Tony Boselli and Terrell Davis. Ki Janan Carter got the draft off to a miserable start but Steve McNair went 4th and that turned out well. Hugh Douglas, Ty Law, and Bobby Taylor had fantastic careers as well.

1996

Hall of Famers: Marvin Harrison, Ray Lewis, Jonathan Ogden (in all likelihood.) Terrell Owens has a shot, though 2 more years like 2007 would put him in.

Mike Alstott was the best FB of his era. Eddie George had a great career. Joe Horn, Marco Rivera, and Stephen Davis went late. On defense, Zach Thomas, Tedy Bruschi, Lawyer Milloy and Brian Dawkins went after the first round as well.

1997

Hall of Famers: Tony Gonzalez is a lock. Tackles Orlando Pace and Walter Jones both have shots, though Jones is still going strong while Pace's career seems to be winding down. You could make a case for both Barber twins as well, and Jason Taylor is probbaly the #2 DE of his era after Strahan.

Tons of good players: James Farrior, Mike Vrabel and Peter Boulware at LB. Corey Dillon and Warrick Dunn at RB. Sam Madison and Darren Sharper in the secondary.

1998

Hall of Famers: Peyton Manning, Randy Moss. Hines Ward has an outside shot as well.

This is not a particularly deep draft. After Manning came Ryan Leaf, Curtis Enis and a number of other busts. There were some good linemen, like Alan Faneca and Flozell Adams, plus Matt Hasselback went late.

I had planned on doing 1999 but it's too early to judge many of these players. Champ Bailey, Donovan McNabb, and Torry Holt are the starts of the draft though.

Back to 1992.....

It was a bloodbath of mediocrity in the first round. After the Colts infamous duo, there were terrible QB's (David Klinger, XFL MVP Tommy Maddux) ,a fullback picked 9th, the Giants and the Jets even picked matching bust TE's in the top 15 with Derek Brown and Johnny Mitchell. Jimmy Smith, Brad Johnson, and Levon Kirkland are the best of the bunch picked late.

To emphasize the point let's see who would have gone top 2 if they re-drafted knowing what we know today.

1990 1. Emmitt Smith 2. Junior Seau

1991 1. Brett Favre 2. Aeneas Williams

1992 1. Troy Vincent 2. Jimmy Smith

1993 1. Michael Strahan 2. Willie Roaf

1994 1. Larry Allen 2. Marshall Faulk

1995 1. Curtis Martin 2. Warren Sapp

1996 1. Jonathan Ogden 2. Ray Lewis

1997 1. Orlando Pace 2. Walter Jones

1998 1. Peyton Manning 2. Randy Moss

Every single player here is somewhere between a lock and a 50-50 shot to be in Canton, except for both '92 picks, who wouldn't have made most years' top 10 lists.

Three Year Plan

It seems that in today's NFL a coach has three years to put up results or else he's shown the door. Occasionally, if a coach's second season is disastrous, like Bill Callahan in 2003, the damage is deemed irreparable and they get fired.
In fact, since 1995, only Dennis Erickson with Seattle and Bruce Coslet with Cincy, have been allowed to coach for 4 seasons without making the playoffs.
As an exception to the three year rule, starting with Mike Shanahan in 1989, the Raiders have dismissed six of their previous eight coaches after two seasons or less.


To see how often team's actually have a successful coaching hire let's analyze the tenure length of NFL coaches of ten years ago, in 1997.

Gone after 1 season:
Joe Bugel- Raiders

Gone after 1.5 seasons:
Kevin Gilbride- Chargers

Gone after 2 seasons:
Lindy Infante- Colts

Gone after 3 seasons:
Ted Marchibroda- Ravens

Pete Carroll- Patriots

Mike Ditka- Saints

Bill Parcells- Jets

Dick Vermeil- Rams (Won Super Bowl)

Gone after 4 seasons:
Vince Tobin- Cardinals

Dom Capers- Panthers

Bruce Coslet- Bengals

Barry Switzer- Cowboys (Won Super Bowl)

Bobby Ross- Lions

Jimmy Johnson- Dolphins

Ray Rhodes- Eagles

Dennis Erickson- Seahawks (coached 6 years total- never made playoffs)


Gone after 6 seasons:
Dave Wannstedt- Bears

Steve Mariucci- 49ers

Tony Dungy- Bucs


Gone after 7 seasons:
Dan Reeves- Falcons (reached Super Bowl)

Mike Holmgren- Packers (Won Super Bowl)

Norv Turner- Redskins


Gone after 8 seasons:
Tom Coughlin- Jaguars


Gone after 10 years:
Marty Schotteheimer- Chiefs

Dennis Green- Vikings


Stepped down after 12 years:
Marv Levy- Bills (made 4 Super Bowls)


Stepped down after 15 years:
Bill Cowher- (Won Super Bowl)


Still with their team:
Jeff Fisher- Titans (14th season- Made a Super Bowl)

Mike Shanahan- Broncos (13th Season- Won 2 Super Bowls)


None of the seven coaches who failed to make the playoffs lasted more than four seasons, one coach who won the Super Bowl last only four, and another who made the playoffs twice lasted only three.

Knowing this, let's see who is on the hot seat after this season?

Brian Billick is in his 9th season with the Ravens but a late-season swoon might cost him his job.

Prediction: One more year

John Fox is in his 6th season with Carolina and made a Super Bowl in 2003, but his team is falling apart, and the only thing that might save him is that he has a built in excuse with the worst QB situation in perhaps the history of the league.

Prediction: Fired, though he will be swooped up quickly

Mike Nolan is in his third year with the 49ers and hasn't smelled the postseason, so keeping him would break the 3-year rule. Plus, he has bickered with his (possibly inept) young QB. His only defense is that he might have the least talented offense in the league.

Prediction: Either Alex Smith goes, or (more likely) he does

Joe Gibbs is in his 4th year, finds himself in a brutal division with a soft team.

Prediction: Gibbs is allowed to "retire" gracefully.

Who's # 3?

To note the midseason point of the NFL, and the inaugural post of this blog, I asked three of my friends to rank the Top 12 QB's in the league as part of a small experiment I will conduct.
(Note: Friends were chosen in direct relation to how much free time they have at work and therefore will remain pseudonymous.
Note-within-a-note: I am writing this at 8 PM because I have no free time at work.
Note-within-a-note-within-a-note: There must be a correlation between having a good job and having plenty of free time because they all make more money than I do. At least the two of them who are employed do.)

I also ranked the top 12 and we will pool their rankings to make the definitive midseason rankings, since four people doing 5 minutes of research each are known to constitute a representative sample.

The rankings
(A first place vote is worth 12 points, 2nd-11, etc.) :

1. Brady 48
2. P. Manning 44
3. Favre 35
4. Roethlisberger 32
5. Romo 30
6. Palmer 24
7. Brees 22
8. D. Anderson 21
9. Garcia 16
10. E. Manning 15
11. Kitna 12
12. Hasselbeck 6
13. McNabb 5
14. Griese 1
14. Rivers 1

There a few interesting revelations from this list.
Firstly, all four people put Brady ahead of Peyton. What was probably about a 70-30 in Manning's favor a year ago, has probably turned into a majority for Brady, despite the fact that Peyton got the monkey off his back.

The fact that only fifteen QB's got named shows how weak the current quarterback crop is ( I'm not sure what Brian Griese being on the list shows other than that Friend # 3 needs to be reacquainted with Donovam McNabb.)
In fact, the lists are pretty consistent; the only real anomaly is Friend #1 picking Kitna 4th, and leaving off Carson Palmer.

For purposes of comparison, here are the top 12 QB's of the list I compiled before the season began:
1. P. Manning
2. Brady
3. Palmer
4. Brees
5. McNabb
6. Romo
7. Hasselbeck
8. Rivers
9. Leinart
10. Roethlisberger
11. Delhomme
12. Garcia

Leinart and Delhomme's seasons ended quickly, though Leinart still had time to play himself out of a job. The other ten have acquited themselves respectably- indeed all 10 got votes in the midseason survey.

Amazingly, the only players to get 20 points whom I didn't include preseason were Derek Anderson, who couldn't even beat out Charlie Frye for the Browns job, and Brett Favre who was not even in consideration for my preseason list.

Looking at the Survey Rankings you get the feeling that this is not exactly the Golden Age for quarterbacks, past the Big 2, plus Favre as a legacy.
The top 4 all have rings but Romo and Palmer, 5 and 6 respectively have yet to win a playoff game, and #7 Drew Brees has won just one. Anderson, Eli, Kitna, Rivers and Griese have all yet to win in the playoffs as well. That's 7 out of the presumed Top 15 in the league who have yet to win a playoff game.
That seems awfully low, and next week we will look back at the QB crops that existed in 1967, 1977, 1987 and 1997 to see if this is a particularly weak group.