How often do prospects become stars?

This off-season 3 of the top 10 pitchers in baseball have been traded strictly for prospects that have not yet proven themselves at, or even reached, the major league level. It seems like more often than not, these trades favor the teams receiving the sure thing.
Let’s analyze an entire year’s worth of prospects, by going 15 year’s into the pat-1993- and seeing how Baseball America’s Top 100 Prospects panned out.

Our Rating System
1.0- Never Reached Majors
1.5- Cup of Coffee
2.0- Never Caught on as a Starter, Bounced Around
2.5- Had Potential/ Career Decimated by Injury
3.0- Journeyman
3.5- Solid Starter
4.0- All-Star Caliber
4.5- Potential Hall of Famer
5.0- Likely Hall of Famer


The Top 100 from 1993

100. Rene Arocha, RHP, Cardinals- 1.5
A Cuban refugee, he finished with a record of 18-17.

99. Russ Springer, RHP, Angels- 3.0
Springer has had a remarkable career arc:

1993 ERA- 7.20
1994- 5.52
1995- 5.29
1996- 4.66
1997- 4.23
1998- 4.10
1999- 3.42
During that span he played for 6 different teams. Then in 2000 and 2001 he had terrible seasons, and missed the 2002 season with an injury. At the age of 34, Springer came back in 2003 with St. Louis and was awful. But he latched on with Houston and had 3 solid seasons. Last year, at age 38, he had a 2.18 ERA and a WHIP under 1.00 for the Cardinals. Amazing.

98. J.T. Snow, 1B, Angels- 4.0
6 Gold Gloves. His best days were over at age 32.

97. Bret Boone, 2B, Mariners- 4.0
Boone’s Home Run totals are a little suspicious.
4, 12, 12, 15, 12, 7, 24, 20, 19, 37, 24, 35, 24.
Then in 2005 he basically forgot how to hit and had to retire.

96. Aaron Holbert, SS, Cardinals- 1.5
I’d never heard of Holbert before, but this is a remarkable story.
He was the Cards’ first Draft Pick in 1990 and finally made it to the bigs in 1996. He played one game when Ozzie Smith got hurt and went 0-3 and got sent back down. He played 9 more seasons at AAA, in fact, his total numbers in the minors were .271 with 77 homers in over 5,500 at bats. Finally, playing for the Reds AAA team in 2005, his 16th professional season, he got called up when Ryan Freel got hurt and got his first MLB hit at 32.

95. Bobby Abreu, OF, Astros- 4.0
3 Fun Facts about Abreu:
1. Abreu has been good enough to receive votes for MVP (not first place votes) 6 times, but has never cracked the top 10 in balloting.
2. Abreu has a chance in 2009 to top $100 million dollars in career earnings. That’s an awful lot of money for someone who was never considered one of the top 10 players in his own league.
3. Classic (Devil) Rays: They pick Abreu in their Expansion Draft and trade him that day for Kevin Stocker.

94. Greg Gohr, RHP, Tigers- 1.5
In 1993, when this list came out, I was 10 years old. Now, for a ten year-old I was a huge baseball fan, but I certainly didn’t know anything about prospects yet. Anyway, I was curious how many players on this list I’d never heard of, presumably because they never made it or had irrelevant careers, like Mr. Gohr above. I assumed it would be fewer than 10 players. The answer was 36.

93. Preston Wilson, OF, Mets- 4.0
According to Baseball Reference, Wilson’s closest comparison at Age 31 was Frank Thomas. I was pretty shocked by that, but I figured hey, I guess Preston used to pretty good. His numbers were pretty solid, at least 23 dingers for 6 straight seasons, but his average was frequently in the .240’s. So I clicked on Thomas’ name to see how the comparison played out and I realized that it was the other Frank Thomas, the one from the ’62 Mets. Oh.

92. Butch Huskey, 3B, Mets- 2.5
In 1997, Huskey hit .287- 24-81.
In 1999, Huskey hit .282-22-77
In 2000, he struggled for the Twins, but raked in Colorado after being traded in July.
In 2001, he failed to make the Indians out of Spring Training at retired at the age of 28.
91. Dan Wilson, C, Reds- 3.5
Wilson had a pretty decent career, mostly as a platoon catcher with Seattle. He even made an All-Star game in ’95 when he hit .285-18-83, by far his best season.
But look how exposed he was in the postseason:
8 hits in 88 at-bats, for a .091 average, with 1 2B, 4 BB and 32 SO.

90. Sterling Hitchcock, LHP, Yankees- 3.5
Unremarkable regular season career with a record of 74-76 and a 4.80 ERA, but he was the 1998 NLCS MVP, and he pitched a great game in the ’98 Worlds Series against the Yankees.

89. Alex Ochoa, OF, Orioles- 2.0
A “5 Tool Prospect” who was truly mediocre at 5 different things. Ochoa was traded a remarkable 7 times in his short career.

88. Larry Thomas, LHP, White Sox- 1.5
Thomas actually pitched well in his 79 appearances over 3 seasons, but he struggled a little in AAA in 1998 and was never heard from again.

87. Brian Hunter, OF, Astros- 3.0
All speed (74 steals in 1997), no bat.

86. Ron Watson, RHP, Angels- 1.0
First player on the list to never make the majors.

85. Roger Cedeno, OF, Dodgers- 3.0
Cedeno, another all speed guy, hit 40 homers, and made nearly $25 million in his career. I wonder if there’s a hitter out there, who made more than $1 million per homer.

84. Aaron Sele, RHP, Red Sox- 3.5
Sele is a truly Steroid Era pitcher; 36 games over .500 with a 4.61 ERA

83. Steve Hosey, OF, Giants- 1.5
1 Career Home Run.

82. Raul Mondesi, OF, Dodgers- 3.5
Mondesi is very possibly the best player to never drive in 100 runs. In fact, 3 Canadian Dollars to the person who finds a better player without 100 RBI.

81. Paul Shuey, RHP, Indians- 3.0
Shuey had a nice career from 1994-2003, missed 3 seasons due to injury and then retirement, but made it back to the majors in 2007. There was no happy ending however as he was one of the Orioles’ primary culprits in the 30-3 game and was cut days later sporting a 9.82 ERA.

80. Steve Ruffcorn, RHP, White Sox- 1.5
79. Steve Gibralter, OF, Reds- 1.5
78. Rich Becker, OF, Mets- 2.0
77. Mark Thompson, RHP, Rockies- 2.0
76. Curtis Shaw, LHP, Athletics- 1.0
75. Jose Pett, RHP, Blue Jays- 1.0
74. Al Shirley, OF, Mets- 1.0
73. Dan Smith, LHP, Rangers -1.5
72. Greg Blosser, OF, Red Sox- 1.5
71. Chad Mottola. OF, Reds- 1.5
From 80-71, a staggering array of players who never panned out. Shirley is the first player who never made AAA.

70. Derek Lowe, RHP, Mariners- 4.0
A really late bloomer, Lowe had never won more than 6 games until 2002, when he racked up 21 wins.

69. Carl Everett, OF, Marlins- 3.5
Everett is thought of to be a pretty solid player, but his most similar career comparison is Bobby Higginson.

68. Jose Martinez, RHP, Marlins- 1.5
One Career Start

67. Mike Lieberthal, C, Phillies- 3.5
Although probably viewed as an inferior player, Lieberthal has almost identical career stats to Jason Varitek.
Player AB HR RBI BA OBP Gold Gloves
Lieberthal 4,218 150 610 .274 .337 1
Varitek 3,978 148 611 .267 .350 1
66. James Baldwin, RHP, White Sox- 3.0
79-74 with a 5.01 ERA; Pitched for 7 teams in his final 5 seasons.

65. Joe Rosselli, LHP, Giants